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今晚全球瞩目！美联储“最青睐通胀指标”将出炉 利率剧本会否改写？_我的网站

A |     　　北京时间周三（8月26日）晚上20:30，本周最受关注的美国宏观经济数据之一——7月个人消费支出（PCE）报告——将出炉。    

    Timeline of the major painted rock art groups in Southwest China: A-A′: Jinsha River rock art; B-B′: Mangguan-Cangyuan rock art; C-C′: Zuojiang rock art Photos: Xinhua
Chinese researchers have obtained the first absolute dates for rock paintings at the Mangguan rock art site in Southwest China's Yunnan Province, pushing the known history of rock art created by prehistoric settled communities in the region back to about 4,220 years ago. The paintings also suggest cultural interactions more than 4,000 years ago between Southwest China and civilizations along the Yellow and Yangtze rivers, as well as possible exchanges with neighboring parts of Southeast Asia, including present-day Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam, a member of the research team told the Global Times. 
The Yunnan Provincial Institute of Cultural Relics and Archaeology, in collaboration with Nanjing Normal University and other institutions, have recently made a significant archaeological breakthrough. Through systematic surveys and uranium-thorium (U-Th) dating at the Mangguan site in Gengma county, the research team obtained the first absolute dates for the site's rock paintings, tracing rock art created by prehistoric settled communities back to around 4,220 years ago.
The findings were recently published in the international journal Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports.
The Mangguan rock paintings represent one of the best-preserved prehistoric rock art sites in Yunnan. The research team presented high precision U Th dating of carbonate accretions that stratigraphically overlie the painted motifs at the Mangguan site, according to the paper published in the journal.
The dating results show that carbonate deposits overlying a human figure yielded a corrected age of 4,240 ± 19 years before present, confirming that ancient people living in the region had already produced mature figurative art at least 4,220 years ago, Wu Yun, first author of the paper and an associate researcher at the Yunnan Provincial Institute of Cultural Relics and Archaeology, was cited by the Xinhua News Agency report as saying.
Dating results from 11 samples taken from different motifs clustered between about 3,907 and 3,056 years ago. By comparison, the Cangyuan cliff paintings had previously been dated to roughly 3,800 to 2,700 years ago. The Mangguan paintings are therefore significantly older, filling an important chronological gap in the region's artistic record before the Cangyuan phase.
Shao Qingfeng, corresponding author of the paper and a professor at the School of Geography at Nanjing Normal University, told the Global Times that previous estimates dated the Mangguan rock paintings to a little over 3,000 years ago based mainly on imagery and comparisons with similar regional sites. Using microsamples of secondary carbonate deposits overlying the paintings, researchers have now obtained a precise minimum age of about 4,220 years before present without damaging the rock art.
The findings and the establishment of this chronological framework not only strengthen the archaeological foundation for studying rock art in Southwest China, but also provide a direct reference for rock art sites across Southeast Asia that have yet to undergo systematic dating, Shao said. 
The findings may also challenge long-held perceptions of Southwest China around 4,200 years ago - roughly the era of the Xia Dynasty (c.2070 BC-C.1600 BC) - and help fill a key gap in understanding the pluralistic yet integrated development of Chinese civilization. 
Shao said that while academic research has traditionally focused on the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins as cradles of early Chinese civilization, sites such as Mangguan and Cangyuan show that stable and culturally active communities also thrived in mountainous Southwest China. The newly established rock-art chronology brings an artistic dimension to the broader narrative of China's enduring cultural development. 
Moreover, stylistic similarities suggest that Southwest China maintained exchanges with the Yellow River and Yangtze River regions and with early societies in Southeast Asia, providing material evidence of cross-regional interaction more than 4,000 years ago.
。　　作为美联储“最青睐的通胀指标”，最新的PCE数据将在该央行9月政策会议之前为研判美国经济状况提供关键参考，并成为重新定价美国利率预期的重要催化剂。

B | 　　市场预计美国7月PCE物价指数将较6月有所回升，但经济学家表示，更广泛的趋势将指向通胀压力趋于缓和。

C | 　　根据FactSet的一致预期，经济学家预计美国7月整体PCE将环比上涨0.07%，此前6月环比下降了0.11%；7月PCE同比涨幅预计由6月的3.7%小幅回落至3.6%。　　剔除波动较大的食品、能源价格的核心PCE物价指数，预计环比上涨0.18%，略高于6月的上涨0.13%；同比上涨3.20%，而6月为上涨3.3%。

D | 　　值得注意的是，美国经济分析局将于9月发布对PCE报告的计算方法变更，以更准确地捕捉计算机硬件、股票投资组合管理和法律服务领域的价格动态。这意味着，7月PCE数据后续或将面临修正。

E | 　　此前6月美国PCE数据曾出现2020年以来首次环比负增长，同比升幅也从前月的4.1%收窄至3.7%。通胀降温主要源于美伊达成临时停火协议后油价的走低。

F | 　　ClearBridge 投资高级投资策略分析师Josh Jamner表示：“通胀预期整体相当稳定。过去几个月出现的通胀抬升预计只是短期现象。”　　为何7月核心PCE预计仍将处于高位？　　法国外贸银行（Natixis）美国首席经济学家Christopher Hodge表示，虽然目前 “已不再有证据表明关税正在影响通胀”，但仍有几个细分品类继续给核心通胀带来压力。主要来看，与人工智能与数据中心大规模建设相关的计算机软硬件价格上行压力仍在持续显现。　　他预计美国7月整体PCE将环比上涨0.14%，同比涨幅维持在3.70%。

G | 核心PCE将环比上涨0.20%，同比涨幅同样维持在3.3%。　　瑞银经济学家表示，近几个月来，AI在通胀篮子中的存在一直在缓慢爬升，但尚不足以搅乱整体通胀趋势。随着AI在各行业的采用扩大，软件和IT成本正在上升，并带动计算机硬件等核心耐用品的成本走高。　　该行经济学家预计，美国7月整体PCE将环比上涨0.16%，同比上涨3.60%；核心PCE将环比上涨0.25%，同比上涨3.30%。

H | 　　高盛高级经济学家David Mericle预计，随着金融市场施加上行压力，核心PCE将在7月上涨，因为股价走高预计将推高投资组合管理费。这可能对月度涨幅贡献0.11个百分点。总体而言，Mericle预计，核心PCE 7月将环比上涨0.20%，同比上涨3.24%。

I | 　　美联储9月料按兵不动　　ClearBridge的Jamner预计，美联储9月将按兵不动。更多经济数据将在9月会议前陆续公布，如8月CPI和就业报告。　　“目前来看，美联储目前按兵不动的可能性比其他任何选项都更大，但距离会议仍有一段时间，局势仍存在变数。

J | 　　Natixis的Hodge也倾向于认为美联储9月将维持利率不变，但与此同时，他认为，鉴于近期的经济数据，市场对加息的预期是合理的。

K | 　　“如果PCE数据令人意外（即通胀超预期），且并非因为某种统计异常，那么9月加息的可能性就会提升。但我并不认为会出现这种情况，预计数据整体将相当温和。”他表示。　　据CME“美联储观察”，目前美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为60.4%，加息25个基点的概率为39.6%。

L | 　　虽然大多数市场参与者预计美联储9月将按兵不动，但这一前景可能随着更多通胀和就业数据的出炉而发生改变。　　总体来看，市场参与者仍在等待更多信号，以判断美国经济基本面，以及美联储今年是否会选择加息。　　本周，市场还将密切关注美联储主席沃什在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的演讲，以寻找其通胀立场线索。（文章来源：财联社）。

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Published on:11:07:49